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Old 06-02-2003, 12:28 AM
dux dux is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 785
Default How can I work out my preflop %

If I see the flop in EP at NL with the following hands:

AA KK QQ JJ TT 99
AKs AQs AJs
KQs KJs
QJs
JTs
AKo AQo KQ

How do I work out the correct probability of me seeing the flop? I started writing down some numbers trying to do it systematically like this
Pr(Ace first card) = 1/13 * Pr(Any A, K, Q, Js) = 12/51
Pr(K first card) = 1/13 * Pr(Any Q, Js) = 5/51
etc.

Then I realised that I may be not accounting for an ace on the 2nd card, because AK and KA are different when you are doing probability this way...and is the 1/13 for a K falling wrong because I have already factored in that it isn't an ace...I'm getting way too confused here. Haven't done maths for a year now.

I'm not asking for anybody to work it out for me, I'm just asking what is the correct way to systematically work out the probability of me seeing the flop with a certain group of hands. Is there an easier way using nCr or nPr?

Thanks in advance.
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