Running It Twice

[moomoocow]

OK - let's do this for a really simple example -

You hold KK
Your mortal enemy holds QQ

The flop and turn come
[ K Q Q ] [5]

you're both all in on the turn - flip your cards and decide to run it twice.

Your EV =
P (1st run is a king) * P(2nd card is anything else) * 1/2pot +
P (1st run is not a king) * P(2nd card is a king) * 1/2Pot +
P(1st card not a king)*P(2nd card not a king) *0

= 1/44 * 1 * 1/2p + 43/44 * 1/43 * 1/2p
= 1/44p

where p is pot sized.

Just as the dealer is about the do the first run. You yell "Stop - we're jsut going to run it once because the eV is different."

Your opponent sighs and says no - the EV from running it once is :

EV = p(river is king) * Pot + p(river not king)*0
= 1/44p

You sheepishly sit down and the dealer proceeds to run it twice - bringing a 4 and a 7. Berating your bad beat, you realize EV is such a silly concept - anyone who cares about "expected" value over and above "realized" value should be worried about paying their "realized" nut - not their "expected" nut [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]