QJo TP River Trouble

DavidC · #1 06-17-2005, 05:49 AM

This was a pretty frustrating hand for me.

Poster's first hand at the table. BB is LAA. Limper is LPP.

Villain (SB) is SLP: 25/7 and then pretty close to 2 aggression, probably a little less.

Re: PF... I definitely don't think this is a fold. It may be a raise, though. If it is, what's the long-term EV difference between calling and raising? I don't think the limper or the BB will drop (50% and 70% vpip respectively), and I have no reads at all on the poster, so this would mostly be a raise for value rather than to clean up overcards, etc. I have the button, which gives me an edge throughout the hand, and keeping the pot small invites errors from my loose opponents (Edit: more like increases the cost of those errors when it comes to made hands and invites errors when it comes to weak draws like gutshots). I think that the obvious move is to raise with this hand, but that they're actually quite close in value. I don't know which action is favoured, though. Any comments are appreciated.

With that in mind, please take a peek at the hand and read the analysis of post-flop play afterwards.

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Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) checks, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, MP1 folds, CO folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

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On the flop, I quickly took a peek at the bettor's post-flop aggression, and figured he may have something here, but he may also be betting a draw. I raised to "take the commando", and maybe get a free showdown. When he called, given his aggression, it could mean anything, with the exception that I can now put him on "not-a-monster".

Given his PFR of 7%, though, I figure in EP he may be calling with hands like AQ and KQ, so I'm not really that happy with my hand.

On the turn, the most wonderful of all things happens: the LAA bets into me on the paired board. I figure that he would have gone for the CR if he did in fact have it, so I'm raising, trying to make the villain fold by facing him with two big bets cold.

Villain calls. I check his WSD: about 45%. Damnit!

When the BB bets into me on the river, I call due to pot size.

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On the river, it's about 12:1 or 11.75:1 to me. I'm curious about whether or not I'm going to be beating both players 1/12.75 of the time.

Now, it's possible that villain is on a flush draw... but for some weird reason I've got him pegged on a higher Q at this point. We could be chopping, though, or he could have something like JJ, but it would be really strange for him to bet JJ on the flop.

He could have JTs hearts and have just pulled the straight out of his buttocks. Even weak-tight players will bet straightflush draws on the flop, quite often.

I think I can safely fold to a river raise.

So, the first question (other than pf stuff) is if you think that I can fold the river? I think definitely not, because of the size of the pot. I think it is a narrowish call, but still a call.

Second question, should I raise the river?

After this guy called two cold on the turn, I don't think he's going to be folding for two cold on the river. And it could cost me 3 bets if the bettor really does have the trips (though I'm pretty sure I can fold if the villain 3-bets).

Depending on how often I'm ahead of BB and behind villain and how often villain will fold to two cold, raising may be the correct play.

So, any comments about raising the river?