A hypothetical WSOP: ME bubble situation

[CardSharpCook]

As Adanthar said, it is an EV question. Folding here, you garuantee winning $12K. Finish top 200, you might make 20K. Double up here, your EV does not go up substantially.

Against a random hand, you are 4:1.

CALL:
20% of the time, you make no money
80% of the time, you now have 7BBs.

With 7BBs, you are still severely short-stacked. Your expected outcome is finishing on the lowest pay scale.

Fold:
100% of the time, you will make 12K. However, the odds that you will finish anywher but in the bottom level of the pay scale are miniscule.

Cost: .2 *12k = $2,400

It will cost $2400 to play to take this risk. So the question is, will you finish high enough, often enough to offset the short-term cost of $2400. I think it is a toss-up. I am ok with either play. I probably call.

CSC