Pot odds; raising a draw on the turn

[Josh Chud]

I recently posted this on the mid-high stakes forum so if you read it there dont feel the need to respond twice [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. But i figured some of you might not read that forum and this post definately applied here.

Live 10/20$ At Gold Strike in Tunica MS.

Player to my right is big LAG. Ive seen him raise J7o and J9o, betting out with nothing, etc.

He raises and i look down to find Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in late position. Playing the player i decide to call, though i thought a raise to isolate with this hand wouldn't have been a terrible play either. Anyways, 4 callers (8 SB).

Flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Check, Check, Villain bets and i raise, fold, fold, Villain re-raises. Im now in the precarious position of figuring out how i got involved with him the one time he hits a monster. Is it a set of jacks? J8? J7?... i try to slow him down one more time with a raise and he caps it. followed by an immediate bet on the turn when the turn comes.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

an obvious blank to both of us. Now its decision time. I think for a while and realize it can only be one of two things.. A Set or T9. Against both hands i was an underdawg. Against the Set it was 2-1, against T9 it was only 57-43. So now the question. The pot has 9 BB going into the turn, 10 with his bet. If im my outs are 9 hearts and 3 Tens (2 if he's holding T9). That puts me at 3-1. But the pot is offering 10-1. Does that mean i raise again until the pot is marginal to the amount im placing in? (If i raise and he reraises, i would've put in 3 Big Bets and gotten 13-3, or if i let him cap it, it would be 15-5, right on the line). Now im asking strictly from an EV standpoint here. The hands are declared, i'm 90% sure he has T9, 10% sure its a set. And i can tell he's got me read for a flush draw, thats why he refused to slow down. Thus i will *have* to hit to win, there will be no bluff opportunities here, and my reverse implied odds only apply if a non-heart Ten comes, where it will induce a bet from him, but giving me the nuts i can get an extra bet (and maybe up to 4) out of him, but if the heart comes he will just check-call.