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outs to non-nut hands
lately i have been spending alot of time thinking about times i called at the limit tables i play hoping to pick up what are essentially drawing hands that still would not give me the nuts. by this i mean hands that are either drawing to the bottom part of straights, low-flushes (although these generally win anyway and so i won't talk about these) and even making something like two-pair or trips by the turn or flop.
a good example would be a hand i recently played on the big blind. i had 97o, there were three limpers, sb completed and i check. the flop comes something like KT7r, giving me bottom pair, and backdoor straight draw...so this is a pretty mediocre/awful hand. sb and i check, player to my immediate left bets, everyone (including sb) calls so there is now something like 9 small bets in the pot. essentially i have 5 "outs" to what i consider to be weak drawing hands (the two 7s and two 9s) and an 8 would give me an oesd. lately, i have been calling with these hands thinking that i am getting proper odds-- i have 5 outs, 47 cards unseen and getting 9:1 odds with the bonus of the 8 giving me the oes. but there are huge huge problems with holdings like these. for one, i could easily be dominated and essentially drawing dead, i could make my two pair and then the board could pair either counterfeiting my two-pair, giving trips to another player, or giving someone Kings up or something similar, and a card like a 8 or a J could make someone their straight and i would only now be drawing to a split. ultimately, i have given up on hands like these if anyone shows the least bit of aggression. and if no one shows aggression i will usually just check it down anyway. If i was holding onto something like A7s then its something of a different story because my hand cant be dominated and i most likley will have a backdoor flush to go along with my bottom pair and overcard (but i think hands like these are a whole other topic). so long story short, i have mostly given up on hands like these and i think it has saved me money and decreased the overall variance of my swings, which is a positive thing in my opinion. however, id still like to hear some feedback or thoughts (mostly pertaining to how anyone counts their outs with hands like these [half-outs, partial-outs, etc] given all the negative aspects that still accompany this holding even if you do "make" your hand) from anyone who has given any thought of these type of "weak drawing hands". thanks alot. --cheap |
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