A simulation of Variance (Long)

[Madd]

Hi,

I also made an excel-sheet with a simulation over 2000 sitngos and in your case with 12% 1st, 11% 2nd and 12% 3rd (ROI 6.4%) you will encounter dramatic swings. It's not at all unusual to drop more than 100 buy-ins and losing streaks can last more than 1k tournies.
That's why I prefer to play at a lower limit with a higher ROI.