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Old 06-12-2005, 06:23 AM
lgas lgas is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 47
Default OES+Flush Draw Short Handed

This is my first post (about a hand) here.

This hand occured in a $2/$5 NL game I played in at a local private card room. We were down to four players and in this game I like to limp frequently and see a lot of flops even when it's full handed but being short handed I play just about any two, and everyone involved in this hand knows that. Every now and then I raise preflop with nothing short handed, and every player in the hand knows that too. I think in general my table image is a decent if LAG-ish player, but I did get caught in one or two ill fated bluffs for relatively large amounts shortly before this hand. This is from memory so the preflop action might not be exact but it's about right.

I started the hand with about $545, small blind had about $365 and big blind had about $500.

I raise to $15 utg with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], button folds, small blind calls, TAG player in big blind calls. Pot=$45, flop is 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] sb checks, big blind bets $60 (he tends to make overbets like this to take down pots right away if he thinks he's definitely ahead).

I think I only had one move here and I think it's pretty clear cut, so I moved in (although I didn't move in instantly, I thought about it for quite a while first).

Both players in turn thought for a good while and eventually folded. As it turns out the small blind had two pair, the big blind had something like 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for bottom pair and the inside straight draw but I guess was trying to figure out the chances that I would make this play with nothing to back it up based on my earlier plays.

Rabbit hunting showed that I would've hit the 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to make my straight and win the hand. My thinking in moving in was that either or both players definitely had me beat at that point but that I had 15 outs twice which would definitely put me ahead (I put big blind on a high pair like AA or KK and I wasn't too worried about the small blind, thought maybe he had just paired the board), so was better than 60% to win the pot, the implied odds were almost 2-to-1 and of course if you factor in the chance of them folding I'm a lot better than 60%... of course what I really want is to get called in both places, and then hit that 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and bust both of them, but of course I was happy to take it down right there too. I also considered a) that it might look like a steal attempt (going all in for 5x the pot size) but like I said I don't mind since I'm figuring to win 60% of the time.... I also considered that if I expect to win 60% of the time maybe I should bet less than all-in to try to entice calls, but I didn't want to wind up in a situation where I wind up pot committed and have to get all my money in on the turn if a blank falls making my chances a lot worse.

So in effect I guess I'm saying that I think going all-in was about the best +EV play I could make, but I'm curious if anyone else sees a different line?
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