Sklansky Theory - making someone pay for a draw

[wmspringer]

Hmm. In limit poker it's obviously correct to put in another bet (since he won't fold either way and you'll win an extra bet 4/5 of the time) but in NL I wonder if it wouldn't be better to make him fold. Gonna work this out as I go along...

You bet $1250 (rounding up a dollar to make the math easier) He calls. Now, four out of 5 times this means you win an extra $1250 and 1 in 5 times you lose an extra $1250, so it would seem this move makes you $3750 over 5 hands.

However....if you were to bet $2000, he would fold (or at least call incorrectly) Assume he folds (otherwise he's making a mistake and you're happy) This means you're eliminating the 1 in 5 chance of losing the pot, which saves you $3,750 over 5 hands.

So it would seem that making the maximum raise he is correct to call has about the same EV as making an oversized raise, assuming that your opponent plays correctly. (If he doesn't play correctly, of course, that changes your preferred move)

Did I make an error anywhere?