Flipping Coins: An accurate simulation of SNGs.

[SuitedSixes]

I think this is a pretty accurate simulation of SNGs for a winning player. It just proves that it really is a game of surving to the bubble and then taking advantage of small edges and winning coinflips. (All numbers are based on 1900 documented SNGs at a level in which I have a 99.96% winning confidence). YMMV

Flip a coin, if it comes up heads you're going to finish 1-4th (52.1% for me), otherwise, you're OTM.

Flip it again, if it comes up heads, you're going to finish 1st or 2nd (48% for me). If it comes up tails, flip it again. Heads you're 3rd (48%), 4th you're OTM.

If it was heads the 1st two times, flip it one last time. Heads you win (56%), tails you're 2nd.


EDIT: FWIW, a player who finishes exactly 50% on each flip would have a 37.5% ITM and 30.9% ROI.