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Here's the situation: 5 players remain in the Bellagio Sunday $540.
Blinds/antes are 800/1600 with 200 ante. We are five handed. I am in small blind with 12k. Big blind has about 7k. UTG has 40k or so and UTG+1 has 20k or so. Button has over 100k and is a very solid player. The action is folded to the button who raises to 6k and I look down and see 88. For sake of argument, my nearly certain read is that the button has two big cards -- I'm nearly 100% sure that 88 is good. I also know I have absolutely no preflop fold equity. Moreover, I'm sure that the big blind will go allin if I fold and he's got a decent gambling hand, but will fold if I push unless he has JJ-AA or AK/AQs (if I fold he'd call with as little as JT or T9s). 5th pays $2,830. 4th pays almost $3,750 or so. 3rd pays $7ish, 2nd pays $12ish, 1st pays $20ish. What's the your play? Fold here hoping the BB will bust out and you can move up the money ladder, or play to win and go with the strong read that 88 is good? If you go with 88 being good should you go all-in or just call and push the flop? |
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