Long shots with odds

[jackfrost]

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By the Kelly Criterion, you should be willing to wager up to 1/43 of your bankroll on such a bet. This is a safer bet than playing a hand of poker from the start. If you are willing to do that, but not call here, your preferences are inconsistent.

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You can't say this is a safer bet than playing a hand from the start because you could have been an 80% favorite before the flop, and now you are looking at slightly better than even money. Preflop I would pass on all even or slightly better than even money situations. With pot odds your almost always in good shape preflop unless you play poorly.

I don't think I would risk 1/43 of my bankroll on a situation where the odds are 1:13 to 1:14. Thats practically like saying i'll go be the house at black jack and only have 43 bets. I could easily get busted by a lucky streak and being good at poker gives a player the luxury of making safer bets. If it was a much smaller fraction of my bankroll than it wouldn't be as much of a risk, but it would only be valuable if the bet was repeated thousands of times.