OOPS!

[34TheTruth34]

3/6 game on the weekend, and believe it or not, the competition is actually pretty tough. No joke, that actually happens once in a while. 5 limpers I look down in the BB and see two red aces. I raise and they all call.

Flop 8-8-8. I am first to act and decide not to bet, so I check and see what will happen. After thinking about the hand, I don't know if I like this or not. What do you guys think? At the time, I was thinking that there weren't really many cards that could beat me if my hand was good. The only hands that could really benefit from a free card would be 99-KK, right? And those hands will call anyway. Everyone else is pretty much drawing to runner-runner and most likely will be drawing dead after the turn card. Also, I considered possibly check-raising if the bet came from late position to see if anyone would call two bets cold. I figured that would also help me narrow down whether the 8 was out there or not.

There are ten cards out in other players hands out of 47 unseen. Using that good 'ole UConn math, I determine that means there is only about a 20% chance (10/47) that the case eight is out against me. Is this correct thinking?

Anyway, it gets checked around. Turn A. Not really the card I wanted to see, even though it does improve my hand and give me a one-outer in case I was behind. But now I don't figure to get any action unless the last ace is out there. I bet and everyone folds to the player on the button who calls. He is an above average player, easily one of the two or three best at the table. I can't get any kind of read off of him.

River Q. I bet out again and he instantly raises. Without even thinking, I just as quickly reraise. I'd like to say that I hoped he had an ace or pocket queens or something, but I didn't even think about it, just auto-reraised. As I'm throwing my reraise out there, I accidentally say "OOPS!" out loud, realizing that I may have just made a bad play (and if not a bad play, then at least a thoughtless play). He instantly re-raises.

Do you call, reraise, or fold and how close is it?