#18
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Re: Did I run into an expert?
Reasons why you can slowplay sets with position vs. flush draws:
1. The flush draw only comes in 1 time in 5. If the opponent checks a non-flush turn, you bet (and are therefore no longer slowplaying). 2. If the flush card comes in on the turn, most opponents with the flush will check "to trap" you and then bet the river small "to get value" since they don't want to scare you off. Thus, you get a free draw to 10 outs on the turn PLUS you are usually priced in to call the river since they frequently don't have the flush and your set is good despite the board 3-flush. 3. If the flush comes in on the river, most opponents bet small (see comments above). 4. The opponent doesn't even have a flush draw in the first place a *big* majority of the time when you look at the probability of being dealt 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s when 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]'s come on the flop. You don't use the pure math unadjusted as the hand develops since his betting pattern will increase or decrease the probability that he has a flush draw, but you need to be aware of it. In this particular hand, our hero's actions were not representing flush draw so that is a point in favor of slowplaying the set of 9's. 5. If the villain does bet big on a flush card, grit your teeth and call a decent % of the time. If you fold your set every time a flush card hits in a tough game, you'll get killed. Later, Che |
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