I'm all confused all of a sudden

[ilya]

So I did some calculations to see what win% would be necessary for a push from CO to be profitable given

1, equal stacks of 5xBB
2, varying probalities of getting called in one of the three spots behind you(30%, 40%, 50%).

The win% required drops dramatically as the number of players increases. What confuses me, however, is how high the necesary win% is if there are only 4 players left. For example, if you figure to get called a total of only 30% of the time (each opponent calls with 66+, AT+, KQ), your win% against your opponents' range must be at least 38%! So, pushing a hand like QTo is drastically wrong from an ICM perspective...yet it feels necessary to push it. Is the ICM *that* warped near the bubble?! Or has my intuition drifted *that* far off course?