Paradox of the wallet

[chaosuk]

'.....this game would appear to be -EV for both players. Clearly this can not be true either.'


there is an important distinction to be made between a game being negative EV for both players and both players making negative EV decisions. It's down to the observer.

It's easy to illistrate, it happens in poker all the time. One player decides to make a very rare bluff, but the chances of it winning are very remote since his oppo will almost certainly call. His decision to bet has -EV. His opponent however, also made a -EV call since his opponent bluffs so rarely. Both players made -EV decisons based on the balance of the hands they contained. Without perfect information both players can make +EV decision or -EV decisions.

signing off.