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Old 05-13-2005, 09:34 PM
na4bart na4bart is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Beach, SoCal
Posts: 98
Default Math question - unsure how to figure best play versus $$ return

Played this hand in a 20/40 game a couple of months ago and was thinking about it recently. Can't figure out if my play gave me the best return on the dollar long run versus the other obvious option.

I held A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG+1 and raised. All folded to sb who called. bb mucked. $100 in the pot preflop.

Flop 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] $80 each goes in on the flop (bet, raise, 3 bet, 4 bet) making the pot $260.

The turn is the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and sb check raises my bet.

Now this is where I get lost in the math. I am acting on the assumption sb does have the second nut flush. Is my return greater if I just call his raise and hope to hit one of my 17 nut outs and get a hopefully extra bet on the river or 3 bet with the intention of showing down the river if I miss. the sb plays well enough to not 4 bet the turn without the nuts, but I still give that possibility about a 10% chance. Given the size of the pot at the point sb check raises the turn where do I earn the most: calling the $40 raise, 3 bet for another $80 and maybe have to put in $120 if I get 4 bet?

I caught a Q to win the pot and was paid off. Whether or not I won is not my question. I understood the situation was profitable, I just don't know which of my options would have given me the greatest long run profit.

Sorry if all this is a bit rambling, but I just do not write very well to go along with my crappy math. Would very much appreciate some feedback on how to figure return in these types of situations. Especially any short cuts that can be used in the heat of the moment. Much thanks in advance to all you math types out there.
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