mini step 2 hand

[schwza]

this is a hand my brother played. possibly at some point he'll sack up and start posting hands himself.

mini step 2, top 2 move on

pinkfloyd has been a little tight. he's passed up several opportunities to raise from the SB, but has pushed some (maybe half?).

thanks!
-josh

***** Hand History for Game 2031690555 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:12106794 Level:5 Blinds(100/200) - Wednesday, May 11, 02:52:17 EDT 2005
Table Mini Step 2 #1014207 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 4: hero ( $2645 )
Seat 3: pinkfloyd618 ( $2080 )
Seat 5: jogea ( $785 )
Seat 8: JSY_GARY ( $2490 )
Trny:12106794 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero [ Th Td ]
jogea folds.
JSY_GARY folds.
pinkfloyd618 is all-In [1980]
hero ???

if hero folds, ICM says that he'll have a 60% chance of winning a seat.

if he calls and loses, he'll have an 18.7% chance.

if he calls and wins, he'll have a 92.2% chance.

he should call when 92.2p + 18.7(1-p) > 60, where p is chance of winning.

75.5p > 41.3
p > 54.7

wow, so according to ICM you should call if villain flips AK face up? that's pretty counter-intuitive. somebody wanna check my math/reasoning?