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  #11  
Old 05-07-2005, 10:32 AM
pergesu pergesu is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2
Default Re: Do you make this call here?

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If you make this play every SnG for the rest of your life your ITM is capped at ~33%.

Brad 5:18

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Fortunately you're not put in this position every SNG for the rest of your life.

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How is making this decision once any different?

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It wouldn't, because you should be making any decision as if it's a repeatable event.

But as I've been thinking about this, I'd like you to explain how this caps your ITM chances at 33%. Cause I just don't get it at all.

You're saying that any time there are 10 opponents in and you call an all-in bet that you limit yourself to a 1/3 shot of making the money? Following that same logic, if there are 5 players in and you call an all-in bet then you're limiting yourself to a 50% ITM.

The fact is that your ITM percentage is not dictated by the the # of players when faced with an all-in decision. That's why we do the math to determine the chance of busting out here or winning.

Since AK figures to be a favorite most of the time against average opponents, you're going to win more than your fair share of the time.

Claiming that your shot of finishing ITM is capped at a fixed figure without considering your hand and the opponents' possible range of hands is flat out incorrect.
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