Middle pair, weak kicker with flush draw - flop decision

[chadplusplus]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero?</font>

Ok, so at this point, I can either raise, to protect my lousy bottom pair or just call and hope the others follow suit to get as much money in the pot in case my flush hits.

How would you guys play this?

Is it practical to try to do an EV for this? Because I started to try and realized it might take all night, but here's a simplistic estimation (perhaps too simplistic).

Simple EV Calc:

If I raise and assume everyone folds but the better.

I will improve by the river approximately 55% of the time (9 hearts, 3 7s, and 2 8s).

And heads up, I expect to win a considerable amount of time if I improve (90% too high?).

And I'll count one more betting round assuming the better will check to me most of the time, so if I improve, I will bet, and he will probably call as most .50/1.00 players will.

EV = (48%)(7.00 BB) - (52%)(1.0 BB) ~ <font color="red">3.00</font> + a negligible amount that I could win if unimproved.

Now if I just call...

This gets complicated, so bear with me and I'm open to all comments:

I can expect at least one of the blinds to stick around (just going by experience here).

So that gets 4.5 BB in the pot after the flop betting.

And I can expect the flop better to bet out again on the turn and I'll call. For this calculation, I also have to assume that the remaining blind sticks around.

So that puts 7.5 BB in the pot.

And If I improve, I'll bet out on the river and hope for a caller or two.

So total pot would be about 9 BB. And I have to assume I win most of the time with the flush (85%?) or trips (with no other draws out there), about 50% of the time with my low two pair, and about 5% unimproved.

So, EV = (35% + 6%)(85%)(9) + (50%)(12%)(9) + (5%)(9) - (54%)(2.5BB) = <font color="red">2.79</font>.

So its pretty close based upon these lousy calculations.

Thanks in advance for comments.