3-way calling action on the bubble

[Gramps]

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Your call is really bad from a chipEV standpoint, and from a $EV standpoint it may be as bad a bubble play as you can make.

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I agree that chip EV it's definitely a clear loser, and it looks pretty fishy at first. But I think there's a lot of variables that $EV-wise makes it at least close, if not correct to call.

-I have the button covered (if I didn't, clear fold - having the button outchipped is everything), and he has to beat me and UTG both for me not to get at least 3rd right there. I believe K9s is better on average than UTG's hand, and while probably a dog to the button's range of hands, not a huge dog.

-If I fold and the button wins I'm somewhat up sh-t creek anyhow - I'm outchipped more than 2:1 by 3rd place and I only have 3.5 BB - it's not like I'm risking a whole lot by calling. If UTG beats the button, then I will get 3rd at absolute worst, whether I'm in the hand or not (my presence means if UTG wins, I get 3rd). So...I'm not putting a whole lot at risk by jumping in there.

-If I fold and UTG wins (okay, I'm in top-3 at least), I have 3.5 BB and am outchipped 3:1 by 2nd place, meaning I'll get 3rd the vast majority of the time anyhow. So...the times I call, UTG pigs the whole thing, and I am eliminated in 3rd...it's not like I was putting a great shot at 1st/2nd on the line...

-I think by me calling, the button wins the pot ~40% of the time (based on his supposed range of hands and UTG's supposed range of hands vs. K9s). So...I get 3rd at worst about 60% of the time, and a little over half that time I pig the whole friggin pot and have > 3,000 chips to battle for 1st/2nd. And once in a while in the 40% or so where the button wins, I'll beat UTG, still have ~600 chips and make a longshot comeback to get ITM (jacks up my $EV of calling just a smidge).

The benefit of folding is that if by calling I would have finished 4th (button beating me and UTG both), I still have some chips to try and crack the top-3. However, because now I'm such a short stack, I don't think I have a great chance at placing, so taking the safe route isn't some clear (or even likley) path to ITM.

that makes it a possible +$EV call IMO (though I'm having trouble finding anyone that agrees so far). Yada-yada.

As far as the button's calling standards, I see a lot of players (in the $215s) call with any Ace/pair/other assortment of cards here - they know they have to make a stand first, and a bullying UTG is a good player to do it against (wide range of hands, plus a blinds overlay here). Obviously, if he has a "real hand," he's calling with it, but I think the range isn't too narrow. Maybe not as wide as I'm assuming, but at least wider than a good pair/good Ace.

If you give the button any Ace, any pair, two suited cards ten or higher, KJo and KQo and UTG and random hand, K9s pigs the pot 1/3 of the time, with the button 42% and UTG 25%.

If you take K9s out of that mix, the button wins 62.5% of the time.

I think UTG is probably using some selection criteria, so 40%/30%/30% is probably closer to reality.

I've been listenting to too much Zeppelin again. Ramble on..er..over.