I don't wanna raise... QJs UTG

[chief444]

I can give you a reason why I like a check/raise.

Lets say on average with the check/raise you win the pot ~ 8% more (equivalent to "cleaning up" 1-1.5 outs). It will probably increase you're chance of showing down the best hand by 5-6% or so I'm estimating but it will also give you a chance to win unimproved on the turn at times. We'll assume the pot size stays the same (since you'll likely lose callers but each player including yourself is putting in more bets) and if you play this for the flush draw only your equity is ~ 40% (about the equivalent of 10-11 outs including a few for the overs and not quite a full 9 for the flush).

Expectation not check/raising: .40*7.75BB = 3.1 BB's
Expectation check/raising: .48*7.75 = 3.72 BB's

3.72-3.1 = .62 BB's > 1 SB extra you just paid.

If you still get a bunch of coldcallers that's not necesarily bad.

Now say if you bet out and it gets raised and you end up getting in a few extra SB's in there. We'll still say the 40% equity is good although it probably isn't really when you get raised but maybe close and I ignored the chance of a 3-bet for when we check/raise so we'll leave the 40 alone here:

Expectation bet to pump draw: .40*9.25 = 3.7 BB's

Rough assumptions but it looks to me like betting is close to check/raising and I think either is better than the line hero took but I think if anything's underestimated in my quick math here it's the chance of winning the pot unimproved with no showdown by check/raising.