Big Draw On Turn, Party NL 1k

[bogey]

Thanks Matt.

So then lets say a reasonable range of hands that I put him on is something like AQ, JQ, KQ, 77, JJ, and QQ. Given the board there are 12 combos of AQ, 9 each of JQ and KQ, and 3 each of 77, JJ, and QQ (is that right?). (I know this is a very narrow range, but is just for an example). So I think he'll lay down AQ and JQ, and call the rest if I go allin. So he folds 21 out of 39 combinations or ~53% of the time. (In actuality this is probably higher right since his range is larger?) Since I only need him to fold 32% of the time, this play appears +EV.