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Old 04-14-2005, 03:09 PM
Grisgra Grisgra is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 715
Default The lure of Martingale . . . (LC)

I am an idiot.

I occasionally play on Paradise, and the evil, evil bastards have just added a Blackjack table . . . all you have to do is click on the little icon while you're playing poker there, and poof!, a Blackjack table opens up, min bet 0.50, max $300.

Now I know a little something about statistics, and I know that Martingaling is a sure road to utter and complete doom. I ALSO know that the chance that a given shot at a table is 99%+ sure to NOT mean certain doom. And what, am I supposed to be afraid of a less than 1% risk of ruin? What am I, a pussy?

So I tell myself "I can . . . probably . . . beat the system. I'll just play this ONE time, no other, make $5 or $10 bucks, and then run like hell. I'll almost certainly be just fine."

Well, it worked the first time. Lost a little money playing 1/2 Crazy Pineapple, thought it'd be good to end the day at Paradise even. Worked the second time I tried it, too. Worked the third as well.

Hasn't been a fourth try yet . . . YET. But knowing my general level of stupidity, there will be.

Just thought I'd share that I'm a moron. Perhaps this will shame me into not taking any more shots.
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