good reraise here, on the flop?

[crackthis09]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (15 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, MP1 folds.

River: (12.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

if there is 3 to a flush on the flop, what are the chances of someone complete'ing their flush by the river.

~josh