A baseball bet

[jrobb83]

My friend, occasional 2+2'er maxpowers21 ( not MaxPower), bet me $100 even money that Randy Johnson would win 22 or more games. If he wins 22 or more, I pay him. If he wins 21 or less, he pays me. I accepted the bet and neither of us can back down now, but I thought I'd get OOT's thoughts on who has the edge.

I feel like I have a significant edge in this bet, as it is very difficult for even an exceptional pitcher having a great year to reach 22 wins. Thoughts?