Is this a bad semibluff?

[SNOWBALL138]

The more I think about it, the more I like my push here. The cards that came on the flop make 2 pair VERY unlikely, and I would also be surprised to run into an overpair, K-9, or A-9 in this spot. If the board came with some face cards or was better co-ordinated, then the chance of running into 2 pair or some other hand that could call me would go up.

I think another poster commented that the only hands that are going to be calling against me in this spot are a set. According to my math, which isn't quite world class, even if both players had pocket pairs b4 the flop, the odds against either having a set are 5-1. Therefore:
(5)(225) > (.68)(705)


The reason I didn't check was the size of the pot. I don't think checking is bad. Its just that 70 percent of the time, the turn isn't going to make my hand. I don't want these 10+1 players bluffing me on the turn, because if I look them up, or raise them all-in, I will never get a fold out of them.


I think I may have said earlier than if the pot was t150 or so, then checking, or making a bet of t100 or so might be the best move. t225 is just so much to leave laying out there in the middle.