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#23
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^ i don't think thats the right approach Tom
if he has 99-AA he's a 95% favorite, and will win 2bets from you if you just call,call .. 3bets if you 3bet, call there are 33combos of those hands if he has AK,AQ(32combos) you win 87% of the time prob 2bets, but lose 2bets 13% of the time both scenarios are about equally likely, honestly the only possible way to make this play is if you are sure he'd still do the turn c/r with AJ, KQ so you would be 2/1fav overcards vs pair I didn't work all the math out, but im pretty sure its -EV both calling the c/r and 3betting also if you plan on folding to any A,K,Q on the river the play is for sure -EV |
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