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Old 03-28-2005, 06:46 PM
Rolen Rolen is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 246
Default My reason to be conservative early theory - Opinions please!

Assume you and everyone else starts with 800 chips

Let's say you get involved lots early on and gain 200 chips by level 3 (25/50) through some very well timed bluffs and some solid play, so you have 1000 chips in total. You find yourself with AK on the button and it's folded to you. You raise 3x BB. The small blind with 600 chips goes all in and the BB folds. You decide to call and he flips over pocket nines. Fortunately, you win! Your net result is 1650 chips (1000 + 600 + BBs 50).

A little while later you still have 1650 chips, but now you're at the 150/300 blind level and chips are at a premium. You see AQ in first position and decide the time is right and push all in. The BB with 1000 chips decides to call you and, to your delight, flips over AJ! You win again and now have 2800 chips (1650 + 1000 + 150 SB).

Now, this time, you don't get involved early, and the blinds decrease your stack slightly to 750 chips. You get AK on the button again in level 3, blah blah blah, you and 99 with 600 chips are all in again and you win again. You net 750 + 600 + 50 = 1400 chips.

Later on, you find AQ again, and to your suprise, AJ in the BB with 1000 chips calls you! You win and end up with 1400 + 1000 + 150 = 2550.

So increacing your stack by 20% early, assuming you find yourself all in a few times (rare that you don't in an SNG), results in a gain of 150 chips later on, tiny in comparison to the stack sizes (there's about a 5.6% difference between the two stacks). Now, if you do this in reverse (you lose the first all in) then the 20% increase becomes imperative to your survival. So if you often find yourself on the short end of the stick in all in situations, be loose and aggressive early. If you've got good timing late on, be conservative as you'll be taking a lot of risks for an almost meaningless 'advantage' when bubble play comes along. (And if bubble play never comes along then none of it really matters, you're out!)

EDIT : Small maths prob, I struggled with adding at school
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