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From reading various SNG guides, FAQ's, and posts on this forum, the general thought seems to be to play conservatively in the first few rounds of SNGs. People advise against pressing small edges early and let the loose players knock themselves out. I'm a newb that doesn't have a great feel for the right moves in different spots just yet, so I look at ICM an awful lot to help analyze play. The advice of not pressing matters early doesn't make sense to me, so i ran calculations for different stages of the game.
This table assumes two things: 1. everyone has an equal stack before the hand 2. if you play, you either double up or bust out these are oversimplified, but i'm trying to figure out a general rule, not analyze a specific situation. Also if the numbers seem weird, i play on stars, where its 9 handed and 1500 starting chips. -edit- apparantly im a moron and can't make a table look respectable, so this is just the number of players left and the % edge needed to make a play break even $EV. 9- 54.24 8- 55.55 7- 56.62 6- 58.14 5- 60.61 4- 65.22 3- 55.72 2- 50.00 This table suggests I'm better off pressing smaller edges early, and being gradually more conservative until ITM. For example if i know the SB has 34o, im in the BB with AKo (63.6% favorite) and he pushes, with 9 people left this is clearly a call. On the bubble ICM says to fold (i'm ignoring the amount in the blinds, just giving an example). This goes against the impression i've gotten from reading guides and posts. Thoughts? |
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