$30+3 - Very difficult bubble hand

[rickw]

I just went through a very similar situation in a 10+1 this weekend w/ the following details (I posted this in a separate thread but thought this thread had some good discussion):

$10+1 Party NL Holdem tournament.

Blinds are 150/300; 4 players left

I'm on button w/ about 2500.
Bigstack is utg w/ approx. 3800; he's been a superlucky calling station, calling allins w/ axo;kxo, etc. and getting lucky when dominated.

SB has about 60 chips left after posting 150. Weak Tight

BB has about 1200 chips left after posting 300. Tight.

Bigstack raises to 600; I'm looking at ako;

If I push I figure there's a 30% chance utg folds, a 40% chance he calls w/ crap, a 20% chance it's a coinflip and a 10% chance I'm dominated. Would this be an easy push even though you're looking at the SB about to be eliminated? (I thought so at the time on the theory, go for the win . . .)