18 The Newbie Chronicles: JTG51 vs. Jones

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In a note posted in the Books and Software Forum on 12/10/02, JTG51 wrote: “’Winning Low Limit Hold ‘Em’ (WLLH) by Lee Jones, 2nd edition, was the first poker book I read…For some reason I decided to flip through WLLH the other night. I was shocked at how bad the preflop advice looks to me now….I think the LP advice is even worse. The summary is on page 47. He says with any amount of limpers in front of you to raise with 88, KQ, AT, and A9o. A9o!”

In response to this post, Dynasty said: “I’ve skimmed through that section of the book and it’s atrocious. It may be the worst pre-flop advice in any well known book.” BB King says that the preflop advice given in WLLH is “real bad” for a beginning player. Mason says that he considers WLLH to be “a marginal work.”

I want to see if I can figure out why raising with A9 in LP after any number of callers is bad advice.

I’ll start by making lots of assumptions. First, I’ll assume that Hero has A9 on the button and that SB will call Hero's raise with top 50% of hands and that BB will call Hero's raise with any hand. Second, there are two callers before Hero who limp in with top 25% of hands and always call Hero’s raise. So five players see the flop (two limpers, Hero, SB, and BB).

WLLH assumes nine player tables. According to Acespade, here are the top 25% hands for a nine player game (listed from best to worst): AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs, AQs, TT, AK, AJs, KQs, AQ, KJs, QJs, ATs, 99, KQ, AJ, KTs, QTs, JTs, KJ, A9s, QJ, 88, AT, K9s, T9s, 77, Q9s, A8s, J9s, A5s, A7s, KT, A4s, JT, A6s, QT, 66, A3s, A2s, 55.

The first thing to notice is that A9 is not on this list. According to Acespade, A9 is ranked #52 in a nine-handed game.

This means that the two limpers in front of Hero have better hands than Hero 100% of the time. So what Hero is fighting for then is whatever money SB and BB put in the pot.

But SB is calling with top 50% of hands so Hero is even behind SB on average (average SB hand is ranked 42 while A9 is 52). So, on average, Hero has the fourth best hand! Definitely seems to be an error to call, much less raise. In any case, this just leaves BB’s two small bets to fight over. Is this enough and should Hero be raising?

Here is a useful simulation: I put one limper on JdTd and the other limper on KhJs (these are the hands ranked 20 and 21 and since the limpers are calling with the top 42 hands these are average hands), Hero on Ad9s, SB on 5c5s (that is the hand that is ranked 42 and since SB is calling top 84 hands that is an average hand for him), and BB on 9h5d (the hand ranked 88 and since BB is calling all 169 hands that is an average hand for him).

In a hot-and-cold simulation Hero wins 24% of the time, JdTd limper wins 23.5% of the time, KhJs limper wins 27% of the time, 5c5s wins 20.5% of the time, and 9h5d wins 5% of the time.

So there are 10 small bets in the pot after the flop and Hero is winning 2.4 small bets on average and he has put in only 2 small bets. So this simulation suggests that Hero is correct to play A9 here.

Note that all of the players here are profitable except for the BB, so this play entirely depends on the BB being so loose that he calls 100% of all LP raises.

However, I think that this simulation is quite favorable for Hero for two reasons. First, he has the high card. Second, the other four players are holding an above average number of each other’s outs (both limpers have a J, both SB and BB have a 5). I put together this simulation in this way exactly so that Hero would get the benefit of the doubt.

Let’s look at a slightly different simulation: The limpers have QhJd (hand 23) and AcTh (hand 25), the SB has Kc8d (hand 43), and the BB has 8h4c (hand 97). As before, Hero has Ad9s.

Now Hero wins 15%, QJ wins 30.5%, AT wins 21%, K8 wins 22%, and BB wins 11%. So now Hero is wrong to play this hand. Since this is closer to the typical hand, I give this more weight.

Another way to look at this is that approximately 1/3 of the limper’s hands dominate A9. So approximately 55% of the time (1 – 2/3*2/3) Hero is going to be dominated by the limpers. If an A comes on the flop he may lose a lot of money since a weaker kicker will probably fold while a better kicker will win and may raise.

In short, raising with A9 in LP after many limpers seems to be quite dubious. I look forward to your comments.


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Comments on Comments

Homer J. Simpson, Angelo Alba, and others point out that the PokerPages tournament rating formula is very different from the one used in real money tournaments. I agree. But my goal here is simply to figure out how to beat an easy game and I have not been able to do that. If I can’t beat play money, I certainly won’t be able to beat real money.

Munga30 suggests scraping PokerPages as a goal and replacing it with something else. My original thought in having this goal was to find the best play money human opposition and beat it soundly. If IRC Poker had been up, I would’ve used it instead. I am open to suggestions. Maybe enrolling in the PokerPages school and playing ring limit games would be a better goal?

Metaname provided a very interesting strategy for playing PokerPages tournaments. I tried it once and I finished #10 out of 109. I spent a lot of time thinking about metaname’s strategy and have quite a few questions.

Metaname writes: “Don’t play any hands at all while the blinds are small (first 40-60 minutes) – muck AA preflop.” In a follow up post metaname says that he tried the system and folded everything for the first 50 minutes so he split the 40-60 range right down the middle. Note that there are only blinds for the first 40 minutes and then after that there are antes as well as blinds. The antes typically add up to 1-2 times the big blind. Metaname, would you suggest playing after 40 minutes?

Metaname also says: “Once the blinds get big and the antes kick in, only play hands in mid-late position.” Are you saying that I should muck AA UTG? And: “only bet if you are the first to enter the pot”. Again, you would muck AA in LP after a few callers? Most critically, metaname says “Raise the pot, fold if reraised”. When you say “raise the pot” does that mean put in a pot-sized raise? If you had AA would you fold if re-raised?

On the issue of river bets, Pudley4 writes “If you make a bet that you know will be called, you don't have to include the "bluff" EV - it is $0.” That’s certainly correct, but that is not what Jones is talking about. He specifically says that your opponent may fold: “Of course, if you think you can make some better hand fold, it may be to your advantage to bet.” He then goes on to say this is “rarely the case” in LL hold ‘em and then proceeds to ignore this branch of the EV calculation. Definitely an error.


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Goal Update

This past week, I spent approximately 17 hours on poker: 6 hours reading 2+2, 5 hours studying metaname’s PokerPages system, 2.25 hours playing PokerPages tournaments, and 3.75 hours playing ring games.

I spent $6.57 this week on Zadeh’s Winning Poker Systems. I have spent a total of $445.03 out of my $1000 budget.

An update on each of the four goals (which are to be accomplished by 3/30/03):

1. Read and study Jones’ “Winning Low Limit Hold ’Em”
I have confirmed two out of the three points I need to achieve this goal. A third point (river bets) is pending a discussion with Pudley4. A fourth point (flush draw value bet) is pending an analysis of 10,000 hands.

2. Beat Acespade
Goal Completed on 11/5/02.
Over a period of 100 hours (3600 hands) I beat Acespade’s best lineup at the rate of over 4 BB/hr.

3. Beat Masque World Series of Poker
Goal Completed on 11/17/02

4. PokerPages 85% rating in one calendar month playing 20 tournaments
My PokerPages rating is now 77.07%. I played two tournaments this past week and finished #56 out of 56 and #10 out of 109. This second tournament, which is my third best result of the month, was played using metaname’s PokerPages system.