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I played in a recent $3 NL tournament on Poker Stars, and was amazed at the amount of all in plays, especially preflop. I've been lurking on this board for about a few months, and reading some posts, and reading some books and understand the pot odds concepts, but here's the part where it all falls apart for me.
Let's say I'm Heads up for a pot in a NL MTT and there are still 500 players left. My hand is a 4-1 underdog and I'm getting 6-1 pot odds. If I have to push to get this, even though the payoff makes this a correct odds play, I still have an 80% chance of busting out of the tournament. And if I were to do this twice, it becomes a 96% chance to to be busted. Second scenario, let's say I'm a 2-1 favorite, and I have to push to get those odds HeadsUp. If I do this 4 times, I only have a 20% chance to make it through all four. I just don't see how constantly pushing all my chips into the middle will get me to the final table. It seems to me that I want to have the bigger stack in these situations so that I'm putting my opponent all in, and I have an edge on the pot odds. When I'm the dog, I'd need to be able to take the hit and still have a viable stack remaining. When I'm the favorite I can have a much higher % of my stack in the middle. Help me out. How does the way I play vs. the pot odds change when I'm forced to go all in to get the odds? If I'm getting 20-1 and drawing to a gut-shot I like the pot odds but not the odds of busting out? How often will I have to put myself all-in on ave to make it to the final table? Thanks in advance for any and all help. |
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