Super Duper Extra Hard Brainteaser

[hoyaboy1]

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I think this is what I am getting at - it only works with an infinite population. If we are talking about earth, for example, 99% would change the answer a TON, as the odds of having a second girl would be waaaaaaaaaaay lower (of course, this whole thing would only work if people were killing off their second kid once they had a Sarah).

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No, no. It doesn't change the calculation at all. I wasn't suggesting that. It's just that you are making up these numbers, and then trying to imagine realistic situations (ie, population distributins like ours here on earth) where they occur.

But look, I can get around your objection by just having 1 or 2 two person families with a girl named sara. All the rest have 1 kid or 3+ kids.

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Yea, I mentioned the possibility of that earlier.

But you do acknowledge that with a limited population with a normal distribution of family sizes (let's say our planet), the answer if 1% or 99% of girls is Sarah is not the same, right?

The real problem here, which I fully acknowledge, is that as the % of Sarahs gets higher people will have to artificially adjust to keep naming 99% of girls Sarah and never have 2 girls named Sarah (like killing babies) if they have 2 kids.

Edit - anything above 2/3 and the chance of a second girl starts dropping due to some sort of articial measure needing to be introduced.