Running hot?

[weevil]

I'm a 2/4 or 3/6 player online, and have done moderately well for myself, though I tend to blow most of my winnings on tournaments or ill-fated runs at 10/20 15/30. I have a hard time focusing while playing online, and find it hard to come up with solid reads on players I'm sitting with, though Poker Tracker and GT+ help a bit.

During the last month I've made four trips to Commerce in LA, and I'm kicking ass. I have no idea how to judge winning streaks in live play, but I don't feel like I'm getting smacked in the face by the deck, or keeping above the suckouts more than usual. My first big session came after five or six hours at 2/4, up $250. Average loose/passive low limit game, just had some decent cards that held up.

Then 10 hours at the 4/8, where I made $600. The game was very loose and somewhat aggressive preflop, more passive post. I only encountered one decent player the whole time, and he was playing far too agressively. Seemeded like he might be a decent aggro online player who couldn't adjust to this type of game; he dropped two racks in an hour on plays I wouldn't have blinked at online, but were obviously not appropriate against these players. I was getting better than average cards, but the game was seeing some massive pots (20-35BB), and I lost four 20BB+ pots on the turn and river.

Then seven or eight hours at the $6/12, up $650. Fairly tight, mildly aggro game, with several rocks and tags, one or two fish and the rest lap. In this game more than any other I've played I found myself reading players and cards dead on. I was able to make some huge semi-bluffs, some nice isolation plays.. stuff that never works in low limit games but did here. I was card dead for maybe half the time, and ran average cardwise the rest of the time with no suckouts. Another five hour 6/12 session up $400, same thing as before.

So up $1900 after about 30 hours. This is like 6BB/hr, which is more like 15/hr online when I'm playing 100+ hands/hr. Bottom line, I don't feel like I'm running hot, just average. Tiny sample size, granted, but is this considered a hot streak for most live players, or just running a tad on the plus side of variance? What is a hot streak like at these limits if the latter? For example, I'd say I was seeing 25% of the flops on average in the 6/12, winning 10-12% of my hands, and about 35% if I saw the flop. Compare that to 200+ hand 5/10 sessions I've had online winning 15-20% of hands, 45 if I saw the flop.

If I'm not deluding myself and 2-3/BB hr is possible at these limits, I don't see myself playing much online anymore. B&M is much more fun for me as an amateur, and I find myself far more able to keep my attention on the other players and able to utilize my table image to great benefit.