This is the one I really want answered

[private joker]

A hand's value is not just in whether it is best now; it's about whether it will be the best at showdown. For example, on a flop of T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], a hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is certainly not the best hand now in an 8-way pot. Even in a heads up pot, it is behind something like 22 or 64o.

But it has 8 outs for a straight, 7 more outs for a flush, 6 more outs for top pair, and even double pairing the T and J can counterfeit 22 or 64o. It has about 52% equity in a heads up pot, and probably about 36-40% equity in a multiway pot.

Hero's hand in this pot might be the best hand on the flop, but it might not. What we should look at is how likely we are to be the best hand at showdown. No single spade is folding ever, especially a big one (Qs, Js, Ts). Maybe you can fold 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and lower with a raise. If there's another ace, you could be outkicked, but if you aren't, there are many ways for your kicker to be counterfeited anyway (e.g. pairing the 5). With 8 players in this pot, it is highly unlikely you'll win the hand without showing down, with pure aggression alone. So you have a lot of cards to dodge if your hand is best, and you're drawing slim to dead if your hand is not the best. Why pay up to 5BB more just to find out that sobering fact?

Fold.