The illusion of the "good fold" in a large pot.

[DavidC]

I've finished reading everything but the Q&A and Hand Quizes in SSHE for the second time. I thought I'd talk a little about "good folds" (meaning bad folds that you think are awesome).

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Let's assume we've got a pot that's 25BB, and that it's one bet to you.

Given that you're putting in 1/26, 3.85% chance to win is your break-even point.

Meaning that if you have a 6% chance to win, you're throwing away almost an entire BB if you fold.

If you assume that these hands happen 1/100 hands, and that you're involved in them on the river 1/10 times, this degrades your winrate by 0.075BB/100 (pretty small).

Assume that you play a little more hands and that the pots approach this size more often, and it's significantly higher than that.

Assume that your winrate is going to be more than 6%, and it's going to be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Assume 10% to win: you lose 2.59bb by not calling the hand.

Assume it happens 3/100 hands, and that you're involved 12% of the times.

It costs your winrate 0.93 BB / 100 hands. Pretty sad, eh? (yes, I'm Canadian.).

***I think 12% involvement may be a little high, though... at 6% involvement (pretty reasonable) it would cost you half this amount.***


So, these decisions (calling for a single bet in large pots with marginal hands) do impact your winrate.

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Here's my problem.

It's really hard for me to figure out my exact winning chances when I'm on the river with a marginal hand. Really really friggin hard.

Furthermore, assume that I just always fold:

If I've got 12% chance to win, then I'm going to be making folds that look like they're working almost every time.

When I call, it looks like I'm paying off too much, every time.

Good players, when they fold a marginal hand in a big pot, that they would have won, can say, "It's just variance."

The same as folding the turn when you would have rivered bottom trips in a small pot.

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I hope it's clear that I'm not condoning folding in these pots after I just outlined how destructive it can be to your winrate.

What I'm saying is that for me personally, it's really hard to SEE the effects of calling with these hands.

How am I going to figure out if they're profitable (this is directly related to my winning chances, which for the life of me, I can't figure out how to determine).

Does anyone have any idea as to how to statistically figure out how often you're going to win in a certain sized pot with given action and a given hand?

--Dave.