Anyone else hesitant with 33 in MP?

[chris_a]

Alright, now we're getting somewhere. Feel free to make changes to this, Davelin.

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I don't know what constitutes proving a "clear" call or not. But let's say you always limp UTG with 22. Let's say that there's a raise behind you 5% of the time


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This is a low estimate in a table with half solid players/ half fish. This is the case we're talking about right? (Each of the good players may have individual PFRs around 5-9 or whatever, so the combined PFR is higher than 5% for sure.) Do you disagree that this is a low estimate?

If each of the good players' PFRs are aroudn 6% (low) then, the chance of somebody raising is roughly,
1-(0.94)^2 = .2661 but this doesn't include the times that two or more players each have a raising hand (but then you'll either have to call two bets or fold which makes it worse). We'll say 26% and I think that's pretty fair.

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so you usually spend 1.05SB per every time you're dealt 22. You flop the set about 1:8 times but you don't always win when you flop the set so let's say you need 1:10 in return. So you need to make on average >10.5SB each time you hit the set.


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The times that you hit a set and lose are not appropriately accounted for by your method. These will cost you more than just saying 10:1 since you will play it strongly and at played back at hard and lose. 10:1 would be the case if you knew when you hit your set and were behind and mucked. This messes up a bit but I don't think it's too far off.

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Let's say on average 2.5 others limp plus the blinds so 4SB goes to the pot.


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This is close to what I get.

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I just don't see it hard to believe that you can find another 6.5SB's when you hit the set given it's such a hidden hand.

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So since the PFR changed slightly, your 10.5 became something like 12.6 SB. Taking away 4 SB gives us 8.6 SB. It's not hard to believe there will be times when you make 8.6 SB. There will be times when you make 16SB or more. But you won't everytime. With an increasing number of good players in the field, your profits with this will go down. With half and half good and bad is it really that clear?

So let's change it to 4 Bad players and 6 Good players? This is clearly still a profitable game. Is it still a no-brainer to limp? The chance of PFR goes down.

My only point is that questions like the original question are NOT a no-brainer.

BTW, the strategy is to check and fold when you don't hit it, right?

BTW BTW, I'm enjoying this discussion.