My Early Bust-Out Theory -- Tell me if I am wrong?

[MagnoliasFM]

I've been thinking about sharing this for a while, but I never had the time. I just took the worst beat of my poker career today. I decided to step out of the kiddie-pool and play some $200 PLO with the new blinds at Party, and I lost a $500+ pot when my overflush lost to a one-outer gutshot straight flush draw. ($500 is a lot of money to me, as I am a college student). Part of my healing process is writing, and what better to write about than my SNG theory [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I consider SNGs to be my best game, even though it's not even really a game. It's more like craps than poker. (craps where you have a huge edge).

If you take a look at my $22 SNG results, the first thing that will jump out is my freakishly high hourly rate. The second thing that will raise your eyebrow is the pie chart that shows my finishes. My 8th, 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th, 2nd, and 3rd place finish frequencies are all pretty much the same! It's my 1st places finishes that really stands out (over 2 times as frequent as any other place). My 9th and 10th place finish frequencies are a little lower than the rest, but not by much. Some people might laugh at my early bustouts and tell me that I should save my chips for later, but I have a theory on SNGs that I call Early Bust-Out Theory.

Most people who are reading this have been indoctrinated with Sklansky's tournament book, which says that you should pass up small edges early on in a tournament if you're better than everyone else in the tournament (which you automatically are, if you sit down at a $22 tournament). People have taken this way out of context and pass up all sorts of double-up opportunities on levels 1, 2, and 3, without realizing that after busting out early they can just join another tournament, which makes it not wise to pass up any sort of edge. There are two things that you should remember:

1. 4th place pays the same as 10th place.

2. 4th place loses you a lot more money than 10th place does. When you get 4th, you lose your buy-in and around 30 minutes of productivity. When you get 10th, you lose only your buy-in and maybe 5 minutes of productivity.

The profitability of each place from most profitable to least profitable is 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 9th, 8th, 7th, 6th, 5th, 4th.

This is why, when someone raises in early position to 55 on the first hand of a tournament, I move all-in with AKo. 90% of the time, a raise to 55 means a pocket pair, but sometimes he has AQ or worse. Overall, despite being a small dog to a pair, I will double-up or win a small pot more often than I bust out, because sometimes the raiser will turn up Ax or fold his low pocket pair. I will take similar risks early on with hands like TT-QQ, where I know I am up against either AK or a pair that could be higher or lower than mine. I am not afraid to bust out in 7th or worse. And that is why I frequently do. But also, that is why when I make it to level 4, I usually have a stack that commands the respect of my timid opponents. And that is why I have so many firsts.

I also "play" on the early levels, and I'm not afraid to risk my case chips if I have a read on someone. Another thing I do that causes me to bust out early a lot is the "squeeze" play on level 3.

The level 3 squeeze play happens when you have around 600 chips and the blinds are 25-50. 3 players have limped in and you move in with any two cards and pick up 225 chips about 3/4ths of the time. If you do get called, it's a coinflip as you whether you double-up or bust out.

Another thing is, in level 2 when 4-5 people have limped in, I would gladly flip a coin to either double+up, or bust out. The dead money from the limpers makes it worth flipping the coin. Again, do not be afraid of busting out. Your biggest fear should be making it to the final 4 with a really short stack, which means that you likely just wasted a bunch of time and still won nothing.

To win a SNG, you're going to have to win a few coinflips. Whether you win them at level 1 or level 4, chips are chips. Waiting until level 4 to flip it is silly, it's like the hare and the tortoise, why fall asleep levels 1-3 just because you think you can make up for it later?

Okay, and my last thing is about coinflips. Most people think the only type of coinflip there is is a pocket pair versus overcards. Nope. Any 2 cards vs. any 2 cards is a coinflip basically. The only situations that you want to avoid are domination from a higher kicker, an overpair, and to a lesser extent, two overcards to your non-pair. These situations aren't as common as people think. Stealing the blinds is also a coinflip. You'll only get called about a third of the time, and the times when you do get called, you'll lose less than 2/3rds of the time. So, it's basically a coinflip. Finally, if you have AA and lose to KK, don't think you just got a bad beat. AA and KK is the same hand preflop, so if you and your opponent hold them, in the long run it's 50/50 as to who wins. If the cards were reversed, you both would have gone all-in just the same. So when you go all-in with TT and get called by JJ and lose, don't think you are a bad player. You just lost a coinflip because your opponent easily could have had a lower pair. Pretty much everything I can think of in SNGs is a coinflip. Winning a SNG comes from making nearly even-money coinflips early on and then flipping hugely weighted coins in later levels when people don't defend their blinds.

Darn, that was a lot of writing. I still have a lot to say but I guess I'll save it for the SNG book I'm planning on writing once I luck out in a future WSOP and get some television time. (Which probably won't be for a while since I'm only 17 lol). Anyways, I want you guys to tell me what you think about my theory that busting out early is actually good and shouldn't be avoided.

Next case.