ICM theory question

[dfscott]

This is a question about calculating ICM.

Let's talk about how to calculate the following situation:

Blinds 100/200
UTG (t1150)
Hero (t1390)
SB (t2010)
BB (t675)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Hero ???

Ok, I'm deciding whether to push or not. So, as I understand it, the first step is to calculate what your chip stack will be if you 1) fold, 2) push and everyone folds, 3) push and someone calls and you win, 4) push and someone calls and you lose, and 5) push and someone calls and you split.

Am I right so far?

Assuming I am, it looks like you'd also have to go a step further, since you have to consider the following scenarios for 3-5: 1) SB folds, BB calls, 2) SB calls, BB folds, and 3) SB calls and BB calls.

So, now you're talking about 11 different scenarios, right? It looks to me like it's:

1) Folding
2) Push and all fold
3) Push and only BB calls and you win
4) Push and only SB calls and you win
5) Push and both blinds call and you win
6) Push and only BB calls and you lose
7) Push and only SB calls and you lose
8) Push and both blinds call and you lose
9) Push and only BB calls and you split
10) Push and only SB calls and you split
11) Push and both blinds call and you split

But then, it looks like it could go even further. In option 11, you might split with just one of the hands, or it might be 3-way. So doesn't that add yet another 2 scenarios?

Then, once you get all the chip counts done, you have to go back and run your hand against the three possible scenarios (vs SB, vs BB, and vs both blinds) to get the win percentages, right?

Maybe I'm missing something, but it looks like this can get complicated pretty fast...

eastbay, if your tool can handle all this, I think you have a customer.