more isolation + 3rd barrel river

detruncate · #1 02-07-2005, 11:04 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

This isolation raise is less clear than the one in my other post. Villain has only been around 2-3 orbits, but he's 50+/25+/2+
so far -- I'm operating under the assumption that he's either LAGgy or some variant of TA/sLA and catching good starters, and I'm leaning toward the former.

I don't think I've played a single hand in the last few orbits, though I may have check/folded out of the blinds.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 6 folds, UTG+1 calls.

I get what I want. Let's see what happens

Flop: (7.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

Nice flop. Clear bet.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

I likely have fold equity, and there's no point letting Villain see a free river... especially if I'll feel any obligation to call a river bet -- which I might have to do unless the board gets scarier. The c/r possibility also doesn't bother me too much.

River: (6.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets...

I rarely make this play, but this seemed like a good time for it. If I'm called, I'm almost certainly beaten. However, there's also a very good chance that I'll lose most of the time if I check. The key decisions seems to be whether Villain will lay down a better ace (or small pair?) often enough to make the bet +EV.

If Villain caught a piece of the board, I think he either flopped/turned a monster he's slowplaying or would have tested me at some point. He's shown a marked tendency toward aggression, and this is the sort of board that is unlikely to have helped me (other than wheel-draw possibilities). He may be on a big overpair, but again I think he would have capped pf or bet/raised at some point.

Villain hasn't seemed to show down hands that he thinks are beaten. He might take a shot with them, but there's been no evidence so far that he'd go passive with A high, or call along in some sort of way ahead/way behind type groove.

It all seemed to add up to a bet. Anyone prefer a check?

As an aside, I'm aware that I read a lot into the situation given my sketchy read. I don't often give a lot of weight to stats, especially this early. However, the pertinent points seemed to be that he was demonstrably aggressive both pre and post flop, and seemed capable of folding a hand he thought was beaten. Out of the 10-15 hands he's seen the flop with, I've actively watched at least 4-5.