#5
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Re: My remarks.
What you have to realize is that such players are the toughest to play against, as maniacs get pocket KKs too. We don't need to pay a cap w/AJs out of position, it's a call.
The chance I'm dominated by the maniac is calculated as AA (3), KK (6), QQ (6), JJ (3), AK (12), AQ (12) = 42 combinations. He raises on approximately 278 combinations of hands. This means I am dominated slightly more often than one time out of seven. Realize that this is approximately the frequency that someone will have AA vs. your KK--yet you would never suggest calling with KK in a million years. As for your other point, playing the nuts or nut draws is no more difficult against maniacs than against rocks. In fact, in many ways it's easier, as they are the most predictable of any opponents. It's not profitable as you think as you are failing to calculate the % of time you are 3-bet on the turn by a made hand. This is not a "made hand" vs. draw position. I will most likely outdraw the aggressor 1 time in 3. I will have the nut straight or higher better than 1 time in 4. The very worst that can happen is that I get 3-bet against 2 opponents and that my Ace is no good. In that case, my EV is 6 * 12/46 - 3 * 34/46 = 72 - 102 = -30/46 or slightly more than half a big bet. But that's the very worse case. What is more likely is that I will get 3 callers anyway and my Ace is good. Even if I get 3-bet, I still win: 9 * 15/46 - 3 * 31/46 = 42/46. Almost a full bet in the black. If I cap it, this increases to 56/46. Therefore, the way it turned out, it's +EV no matter how many bets go in the pot. In fact, I make yet more money on each bet. This is what you do not seem to realize. It makes me wonder how much you're leaving on the table in these situations. What I will admit is that this play is not without risk. But getting up in the morning is not without risk. |
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