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  #10  
Old 02-02-2005, 02:45 PM
Entity Entity is offline
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Default Re: Flush draw on flop

[ QUOTE ]
This is an easy raise.

You have two callers and a 35% edge in equity. You might get a free card on the turn if you need it. You have to assume that your flush will win here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your opponents are passive, a raise is fine. If they are aggressive, a call is better.

I'm a bit confused about quite a few things, though: you are in MP but last to act -- so you limped in MP with 76s after one limper?

You're 1.9:1 to hit your flush by the river, so you are getting a slight overlay against two callers. However, your flush won't win this quite 1.9:1 times (you'll hit running spades ~3.5% of the time and be up against two pair occasionally -- which has a 4-out redraw against your 9 outer), so the equity edge you have here isn't as great as people would like to make it out to be.

If you're very likely to not get 3-bet and the pot is only 3-handed (so you can't encourage other callers here), then raising is fine.

Regardless, it isn't quite as "easy" as people want to make it out to be. We're talking equity of around 30-32% here on the average, not 35%.

35% is a perfect scenario when neither player has any spades, the bettor doesn't have a set of ducks or two pair, and the caller doesn't have a flush draw.

Hand 1: 30.2757 % [ 00.30 00.00 ] { 7s6s }
Hand 2: 38.4043 % [ 00.34 00.04 ] { 22, KTs, QJs, JTs-J2s, KTo, QJo-Q2o }
Hand 3: 31.3200 % [ 00.27 00.04 ] { KTs, JTs-J3s, KJo-KTo, QTo-Q2o }

Rob
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