Maybe I've been using out odds all wrong, quick help?

[comstock]

Ok, let's say I've got QJ and the flop comes A K 6

Someone bets. I've got 4 outs for the gutshot which I don't feel great about calling but it's a .50 bet with a $6 dollar pot. The pot's paying 12-1 and I have 16.5% chance of spiking a 10 by the river...so seems like I should call.

Turn is a 2. It doesn't come, and the bet is now $1, pot at $9. Now with one card left the chance of hitting a 10 is 8.7%, and the pot is paying 9-1, can't call.

Now, here's my question. On the flop I had a 16.5% chance of it coming *by the river*, knowing full well if it didn't come by the turn the pot odds probably wouldn't be there to call one more card.

So...in calculating my outs AFTER THE FLOP, maybe I should assume one card to come instead of 2, since most of the time the odds aren't there to see the river anyway once I've recalcuated...right?


This however is a bad example since even assuming only one card to come, 12-1 pot odds vs 8.7% still says call.

So in this situation post flop I should use 1 card instead of 2 for the calcs?