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Strength of top overcards in a non-hitting flop
A thread I posted some time ago had a list of three AK hands I'd played to varying degrees of losing. I've been looking at stats using pokenum, but it doesn't seem to be fulfilling what I'm looking for. I'm about 24% to win with a flush and straight-drawless board against top pair with anything except my outs for a kicker, 21% to win against a single dirty out who doesn't have a pair made and the person playing TP, and about 13% to win when the third player, instead of having nothing except my dirty K or Q, has mid or low pair and one of my dirty outs is covered.
If that's hard to understand in text: Hero has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in all of them Board has Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Villains have: Hand 1 1 Villain Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 28% to win Hand 2 2 Villains Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 21% to win Hand 3 2 Villains Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 13% to win Now to me, all three of these are extremely likely scenarios, only with more players. How do these percentages justify me even staying in when I have such bad odds to win? These are with 1 or 2 Villains, and I'll either be putting in 50% or 33% of the pot. With more players and depending on pot size, I can maybe understand playing off those overcards until the turn, but that's as far as I think I can justify going. Am I missing something here, or what? I'd really like to pin down some type of play with these overcards, because they happen very frequently, and it seems like I'm losing money regardless of how I play these. I assumed the bettor had top pair, but in late position I can assume he probably has a pair of some sort, and percentages don't change much. So, I guess my question is, what makes these hands worth playing come the flop? Are implied odds worth something with TPTK if it does hit? Is this too many stupid questions in a thread? |
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