Flawed Author-Cardplayer Articles

[binions]

Brier wrote:

"The advantages cited for reraising seem miniscule and not worth the cost of the bet. What is the increase in expectation when you “buy two more outs” by having the small blind fold a better ace? First, what is the likelihood that he even has an ace? Suppose that he would raise from the small blind with a typical “under-the-gun” raising hand such as A-K, A-Q, A-J suited, K-Q suited, A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, or maybe 10-10. (As an aside, very few low-limit players raise from their blinds against a large field with A-Q offsuit). Given the cards showing, the probability is about 30 percent that he has A-Q or A-J suited. Second, two outs from 45 unseen cards is about 4 percent. So, overall, this is worth about 1 percent. On a pot this size, this equates to maybe 0.1-0.2 small bets. In a $4-$8 game, this would be worth about 60 cents. This drops to about 30 cents if we rule out A-Q offsuit."

********************

Buying 2 outs with 2 to come by reraising an AQ out is not worth 4%. It's worth 8.79% if you see the river card.

1 - (43/45 * 42/44) = 8.79%