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BJ down swing- want to find out how rare of an event this is...
ok so i'm playing blackjack at five bucks a hand, everything going cool... then the cards go cold for a couple hundred hands. not just cold, but 'holy crap gimme something to smash i hate this damn game i'm gonna quit forever, i swear' cold. i keep accurate track of my hands, and here it is:
212 bets in about 195 hands (i use 54 bet intervals to record my bonus clearing progress) first interval -12 bets second interval -18 bets (yuck! lost two doubles and both ends of a split in this one, and pushed a BJ) third +1 bet fourth -15 bets = a -44 bet swing (220$, my whole bonus and then some) in an overall session of 636 bets, @ 590 hands and this is at downtown vegas rules BJ, house advantage .36%, my play was nearly perfect (i may have made one or two mistakes, max, i still fail to double a soft 14 into a five sometimes, or mis-click the mouse etc). how do i calculate the SD for these odds and session lenghts? is there a downloadable spreadsheet that will do it for me? i don't often post in the odds forum, forgive me if this is an annoying or O/T post, but i'd really like to know how often i'll have to deal with this. |
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