Math Question re:- the " Carib Football Poll "

[The Mayher]

The standings going into the final week are 113 pts.to 108 pts for the top 2 entrants.By the way it's a $ 55,000 1st place prize.......You make your top 5 picks against the spread.As you can see,the magic # is "one",but an unusal "one" because any pick that ends up being tha same eliminates the player in 2nd place.So what's the chance of the guy trailing,tying it up.It must be astranomical.Does anyone out there know the math.......Thanx....BB