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Bally\'s AC - $1/3 blinds last night
Villain in this post is LAG (and basically a horrible player imo) - preflop raising standards ok, but will call raises with absolute trash. His main postflop play is to open with an all-in bet on the flop. One of these hands was a $12 pot that he opened for $120 on the flop. Most other pots he did this on were about half the size of his all-in bet. He'd do this every 10-15 minutes, and had never been called/never showed his hand.
Hero is dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in CO. (11-handed table) Villain limps UTG+2. 2 more limpers. Hero limps. Button limps. SB raises to $10 (I had seen him do this with A4o in the BB after several limpers earlier). Everyone calls. Flop ($70 pot, 7 players) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Checked all around. Turn ($70 pot, 7 players) Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 checks. Hero bets $25. Folded to Villain, who check-raises to $60. (Hero has $130 remaining, Villain has this covered.) In thinking this through, I realized that the Villain hadn't check-raised anyone all night, and had usually been moving all-in on the flop. Judging by his previous actions, it seemed clear that the Villain would move his stack in on the river. What are the chances that I'm ahead/behind here? Anyone think villain has a set? Also keep in mind that the villain was loose enough that he could have flopped 2 pair on that board, although that in no way means that he must have here. So if I'm ahead, reraising all-in is the correct play. If he has a set or 2 pair with the Q, I'm drawing dead or slim and should fold. If he has 2 pair w/o a Q, I have 8 outs and could call to see the river, but if the board pairs non-Q, I won't know if I've been saved or if he filled. I also felt that if I folded here I'd get another chance at one of his all-in moves when it was more clear I was ahead. On the flip side, I thought he'd buy in more if he lost and I could still get another shot at more money from him later. Your move? |
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