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#11
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I think I call this down. Here is my reasoning:
There are a lot of hands that could be out there I am beating, and only 1 (right now) I am not. I could see a smaller flush or straight or two pair all c/r ing the turn here (as well as a bluff or semi-bluff). If the blind has the nut flush, he probably will bet small on the end (if the board does not pair) to encourage a call. Fine. If he does not have the nut flush, he may check the river, bet small, or bet big. Fine, too. The only place I get killed is if he switches up and pushes the river with the nuts, which is not too likely I think since I need a big flush to call there. If checked to on the river, I check behind. If the board pairs on the river, I call for all the above reasons. Basically, I think I am easily ahead enough to call smallish bets down, and I don't think a hand that beats me will push here, so even if I am beaten I should come out with at least 100BB. Easy call down IMO, but I am certainly not raising or betting again. |
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